Bernardo Arévalo, a 64-year-old sociologist and reformer, did the seemingly unimaginable this week. He overcame trumped-up authorized challenges and a better-financed, establishment-backed rival to grow to be Guatemala’s subsequent president.
Arévalo’s landslide victory — delivered by younger and middle-class voters fed up with limitless authorities dysfunction — is a watershed for Central America’s largest nation. Political machines backed by massive donors and arranged crime have dominated elections there for many years, entrenching corruption, violence and poverty and driving hundreds of thousands of Guatemalans emigrate to the US.
Arévalo’s marketing campaign, run on a shoestring funds from a rented storage, broke the mildew. He gained the presidency with out backing by or guarantees to vested pursuits.
It was a deeply symbolic victory. Guatemalans nonetheless bear in mind his father, the late President Juan José Arévalo, for having ushered in a “democratic spring” earlier than a 1954 CIA-backed coup thrust Guatemala into a long time of navy rule. At Arévalo’s closing marketing campaign rally in Guatemala Metropolis, younger and outdated supporters alike held indicators promising “the spring will flower once more.”
Now comes the laborious half: making it occur. Arévalo has a path to achievement — and Guatemala to a future that doesn’t drive lots of of hundreds a 12 months to the U.S.-Mexico border — however each are mined with obstacles.
The president-elect and his get together have a commonsense, centrist agenda that almost all Guatemalans assist and good political instincts to match. They aren’t ideologues, and they’re able to work with political and enterprise leaders who share their targets.
The issue? Such potential allies are briefly provide. Below President Alejandro Giammattei, Guatemala has edged ever nearer to turning into a mafia state, and the highly effective vested pursuits that revenue from the way in which issues are will battle Arévalo tooth and nail. They might even put him in peril: The Group of American States lately revealed two plots to assassinate Arévalo and the vice president-elect.
Arévalo needs to switch the politically related cronies in state businesses with educated professionals, cease skimming of presidency contracts and scale back hovering electrical energy and healthcare prices. However these affordable reforms are opposite to the way in which Guatemala has operated for many years.
The justice system, which is full of institution cronies, shall be one impediment. In July, in a unadorned bid to cease Arévalo from competing, Atty. Gen. María Consuelo Porras opened three felony instances in opposition to his get together and requested a decide to dissolve it. Resistance from elements of the personal sector, civil society teams and overseas embassies foiled the plan, however the instances stay open.
Porras, who can’t be faraway from her submit till 2026, is pushing forward with politically motivated investigations of Arévalo’s get together and unbiased election officers. At worst, the instances might dissove the get together and hobble its lawmakers. Some concern the opposition-controlled Congress might even seize a chance to delay or stop Arévalo’s January swearing-in.
Even when Arévalo’s get together dodges that, it holds solely a few seventh of the seats within the nation’s Congress. The remaining are managed by political machines and hard-line conservatives who mistrust Arévalo. Leaders of Arévalo’s get together advised me they saved the scope of their agenda modest realizing that they’d be coping with a hostile Congress.
However simply passing primary laws such because the annual funds shall be an uphill battle. Arévalo’s get together has pledged to not dole out public contracts, Cupboard posts or money, the same old technique of currying favor amongst legislators.
Some enterprise leaders rallied behind Arévalo’s reform agenda. However most have been publicly silent as the present president chipped away at democracy and persecuted critics. And a few influential tycoons are lifeless set in opposition to Arévalo.
Navigating the personal sector’s many factions whereas with out watering down his agenda shall be troublesome. A few of his get together’s bolder proposals, equivalent to passing an antitrust regulation and taking up a robust pharmaceutical cartel, are certain to trigger rigidity.
Then there would be the problem of assembly the expectations of his personal supporters. Once I requested Samuel Pérez, the 31-year-old chief of Arévalo’s get together in Congress, what could be the best problem of governing, he didn’t hesitate: “Managing the expectations of the Guatemalan individuals. As a result of proper now, the hope we’ve generated is large.”
There’s nonetheless cause to hope that the president-elect can fulfill a few of his guarantees. Just by refusing to award contracts and jobs primarily based on political connections, he might scale back rampant corruption. With out management of the presidency lining their wallets — and funding their campaigns — machine politicians in Congress might notice they’re liable to dropping reelection and alter their tune.
Endemic corruption, unhealthy authorities and pervasive crime drive many Guatemalans to desert the nation yearly. If Arévalo governs as prudently as he campaigned, Guatemala has a superb shot at fixing its damaged establishments and giving extra of its individuals cause to remain.
Will Freeman is a fellow for Latin America research on the Council on Overseas Relations.