Taipei, Taiwan – Taiwan goes to the polls in January to decide on a brand new president, with the candidate for the ruling Democratic Progressive Occasion (DPP) presently main the race.
Outgoing International Minister Joseph Wu informed Al Jazeera that Taipei is “watching fastidiously” any makes an attempt by Beijing – which claims the island as its personal and has not dominated out using power to attain its aim – to form the result of the ballot.
Wu says he expects China to step up misinformation and disinformation campaigns as a result of efforts to affect the result by means of “forceful” means, equivalent to large-scale army workout routines, are more likely to backfire.
Beijing has stepped up such actions since Tsai Ing-wen was first elected president in 2016. She shouldn’t be eligible to run for a 3rd time period.
Wu, who’s a member of the DPP and has been outspoken in his defence of Taiwan’s elected authorities, sat down with Al Jazeera at his workplace in Taipei.
The interview has been edited for size and readability.
Al Jazeera: The Democratic Progressive Occasion is historically in style with youthful voters however this election cycle, former Taipei Mayor and third-party candidate Ko Wen-je has been drawing youthful help. How will the DPP deal with this problem?
Joseph Wu: There are two issues I can in all probability say about this query. The primary is about younger voters. Again in 2014, there was the Sunflower Motion after which in 2019-2020, there have been protests in Hong Kong and the imposition of its nationwide safety legislation.
These occasions impressed the younger individuals to search for a political social gathering that may safeguard Taiwan’s freedom and the DPP was seen by younger [people] on the time because the political social gathering that was in a position to do it.
However as you already know, younger individuals simply continue to grow up and now, first-time voters won’t have the sort of reminiscence as those that are just a little extra mature. When you take a look at younger individuals’s preferences, they like someone who’s non-conventional and in case you take a look at all of the candidates, Ko Wen-je is [the most] unconventional.
The second issue that I wish to say is that this has been altering in a really dramatic means as a result of the extra mature younger voters are explaining to their youthful [cohort] the actual points within the presidential election they usually realise that there are a number of issues with Ko Wen-je and his [Taiwan People’s Party or TPP]. When you take a look at polls, younger persons are fleeing from Ko Wen-je and the TPP.
Al Jazeera: China has been more and more antagonistic in the direction of Taiwan over the previous yr. Do you anticipate this to ramp up extra because the election will get nearer?
Joseph Wu: It’s laborious to say. Totally different individuals have totally different assessments however most individuals, or most analysts in Taiwan, perceive that every time China tries to intrude into our elections in a forceful means, it tends to backfire. It [test-fired missiles during] the primary presidential election in 1996 and each time we undergo the identical cycle.
If the Chinese language have an interest within the election outcomes right here in Taiwan, I don’t suppose that they may do something as main as what we noticed final August or this previous April like large-scale army workout routines. If the Chinese language try this, I’m certain that persons are going to take a look at China in a really damaging means.
However in case you take a look at the Chinese language decision-making system, it’s extremely centralised. All the ability is central to Xi Jinping. And naturally, he’s one man. He can’t have all the data he wants. If he makes a unsuitable judgement by considering that perhaps the election in Taiwan shouldn’t be getting in a means that the Chinese language Communist Occasion would love, there’s a risk – or we don’t rule out the likelihood – that China could resort to army workout routines or a army risk towards Taiwan.
Apart from the army, we also needs to take a look at different elements of how China is making an attempt to form the election outcome, for instance, financial coercion and hybrid warfare.
They’ve been speaking about ending the EFA – the Financial Cooperation Framework Settlement – reached between Taiwan and China [in 2010]. They’re additionally investigating a few of Taiwan’s exports to China they usually could do one thing like ban our mangoes.
Hybrid warfare is one thing that we’re watching very fastidiously. This doesn’t [involve] aeroplanes or army ships, [rather, the infiltration of] Taiwanese society, free society, by means of conventional media, by means of social media.
Let me offer you one instance. Starting from the warfare in Ukraine, the Chinese language had been pushing the Russian narratives in Taiwan: “The warfare was began by the US or NATO and United States shouldn’t be all for serving to Ukraine. The US shouldn’t be all for peace in between Ukraine and Russia, as a result of the US continues to offer weapons to Ukraine.” They’re pushing that day in and day trip. In direction of the center of final yr, we did a public opinion survey and the Taiwanese individuals’s belief in the US decreased about 10 %. That’s fairly vital.
Al Jazeera: How do you suppose the world ought to reply to a extra aggressive China?
Joseph Wu: Totally different international locations have totally different nationwide pursuits however, general, if we take a look at the issues posed by China, we are able to come to some primary understanding.
The primary is financial. When you take a look at the Chinese language financial system, it’s slowing down very considerably, to the diploma the place quite a lot of worldwide businessmen working in China proper now are options. And in case you take a look at the Chinese language authorities insurance policies, they’re creating an financial atmosphere that’s not pleasant any extra. For instance, they’ve an anti-espionage legislation. They’ll examine enterprise operations, they’ll detain individuals, they’ll prohibit firms from doing sure issues.
The second factor that we want to concentrate on is what China represents as an authoritarian nation. It’s making an attempt to export its authoritarianism by means of totally different sorts of mechanisms. They use the Belt and Street Initiative to make connections with different international locations, particularly within the International South. Similtaneously they’re exporting their Belt and Street Initiative, they’re additionally exporting digital authoritarian mechanisms to the International South – opposite to our shared beliefs in freedom and democracy, safety of human rights, rule of legislation, and all this.
[With] these two primary understandings, I believe we should always observe the conclusions of the G7 or EU summit to “de-risk”.
Extra importantly for Taiwan, or what different international locations must know concerning the state of affairs Taiwan, [is] our worldwide house has been restricted. We’re below fixed army risk, together with gray zone actions, and hybrid warfare.
All it is because China has ambition over Taiwan, an authoritarian nation has ambition over a democratic nation, and if we now have that realisation, we’d be capable of stop what occurred in Ukraine from taking place once more. What occurred to Ukraine was authoritarian or autocratic Russia was all for growth they usually checked out Ukraine as a goal, in order that they launched a warfare towards Ukraine.
Right here, on this a part of the world, China appears to have the identical ambition, and if China is allowed to provoke a warfare towards Taiwan, to occupy Taiwan, it is going to be an assault towards our shared values.
And yet one more issue for associates on the market to consider as properly is the geo-strategic place [of] Taiwan. Taiwan is situated not simply within the central a part of the First Island Chain however Taiwan can be situated in one of many main worldwide commerce routes. About 50 % of the world’s cargo goes by means of the Taiwan Strait.
Taiwan can be a semiconductor hub. About 60 % of the semiconductor merchandise come from Taiwan and about 90 % – to be extra exact 92 % – of the very best finish of the semiconductor chips are produced right here in Taiwan.
When you take a look at the warfare in Ukraine, we ended up with a meals disaster, power disaster, inflation all over the place and if you consider the Chinese language invasion of Taiwan, the financial influence all through the world might be going to be a lot, way more severe than Ukraine.
For us to discourage China from enthusiastic about utilizing power towards Taiwan, we have to do a number of issues. For Taiwan itself, we have to have a really rational, very reasonable coverage to forestall China from having any excuse to launch a warfare towards Taiwan. However on the similar time, it’s also obligatory that we have to arm ourselves, we have to have superior capabilities, in order that China understands that utilizing power towards Taiwan won’t be a straightforward job.
Al Jazeera: Moreover the US, Taiwan’s different main unofficial ally is Japan. The DPP meets with the LDP (Liberal Democratic Occasion) at a party-to-party degree to speak about safety points. Are you able to give us an replace?
Joseph Wu: Japan is an excellent buddy of ours. When you have a chance to learn among the public opinion surveys launched by us or launched by Japan, I believe it’s about 50 % of the individuals surveyed suppose that Japan is their favorite nation and I believe the US is a really far quantity two.
It’s additionally moderately distinctive, every time there’s a pure catastrophe over right here, the Japanese politicians, the Japanese individuals, would all the time present sympathy and help for Taiwan, and vice-versa. It appears to me that Japanese politicians within the Nationwide Weight loss program [Japan’s national legislature] are competing on tips on how to be nicer to Taiwan. In order that is excellent however we additionally perceive that there’s a authorized limitation or a constitutional limitation for the 2 militaries to be in contact with one another to take care of laborious safety points.
Nonetheless, we’re looking for alternate other ways to cooperate with one another. The parliament-to-parliament kind of cooperation, their ruling social gathering and our ruling social gathering are partaking in one thing we name “two plus two”: this safety two plus two, after which financial safety, two plus two.
And aside from this quasi-official or not-so-much-official kind of interactions on safety issues is Coast Guard cooperation. Japan can be very conscious of the safety atmosphere on this area. They perceive that Taiwan’s safety could also be inseparable from Japanese safety.
When you take a look at the Chinese language actions, their air power or their naval power, there are two channels that they’ll undergo: one is the Bashi channel, and the opposite one is Miyako Strait. And every time they cross by means of the Miyako Strait, they’ll threaten Taiwan and every time they cross by means of the Bashi Channel to go north, they threaten Japan.
In direction of the tip of final yr, they [Japan] revised their three nationwide safety paperwork they usually have determined to double their army funds and fortify among the outer islands which might be near Taiwan. And I believe all these efforts are a part of the worldwide effort in deterring China from utilizing power towards Taiwan.
Al Jazeera: How can Taiwan preserve its few formal allies and do you could have any updates on stunning new unofficial allies past Lithuania, Jap Europe and the Czech Republic?
Joseph Wu: We treasure our relationships with all these diplomatic allies. They’re those who can communicate most forcefully in worldwide organisations the place Taiwan seeks participation and we treasure them and can proceed to help them.
And the best way to help them is to make it possible for Taiwan’s help to them is benefitting the individuals instantly. For instance, [Guatemala’s] President [Alejandro] Giammattei, he’s a medical physician in coaching and he’s all for offering individuals with higher medical care. We mentioned it with him and we constructed a hospital for him in Chimaltenango, and the hospital was accomplished and it was an excellent hospital and that advantages the individuals instantly.
The Taiwan mannequin of help advantages the individuals instantly, moderately than the Chinese language very flamboyant kind of guarantees. However in the long run, both they don’t seem to be in a position to ship, or in the long run, it turns into a debt entice. We don’t do [things] like that.
However for any nation that reveals actual curiosity in growing nearer ties with Taiwan, like Lithuania, we’re additionally making an attempt to make [our] current relationship much more substantial than earlier than. For instance, we negotiated with the Czech Republic to have a direct flight in between Taoyuan and Prague, and we’re additionally discussing with varied international locations in Central and Jap Europe – Lithuania, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland – about how we are able to work collectively to assist the Ukrainians.
Apart from that, we need to arrange regional workplaces within the international locations the place we have already got consultant workplaces. For instance, in Canada, we introduced the institution of a brand new workplace in Montreal. We’ve got additionally introduced our new workplace in Milan, and a few years in the past, we additionally introduced our new workplace in Provence. We additionally introduced the institution of a regional workplace in Mumbai, India.
With extra workplaces in these international locations, relations with these international locations are going to be extra substantial than earlier than.